IS TRUMP RECESSION PROOF

Economist had predicted whomever was elected president the U.S. was headed to a recession. Apparently the economy has not fully recovered from the last Bush recession, and if the U.S. were to have another we could have a possible depression.

Economic indicators lead one to believe their predictions are true. Economic growth has slowed for the past 5 quarters as has job growth. Banks are getting greedy and reckless with their building loans as they were in the past recession.

Republican presidents seem to rule recessions. As a result history could portend a bad omen for President-elect Donald Trump. Every Republican president since Teddy Roosevelt in the early 1900’s endured a recession in their first term, according to a recent analysis from a investment strategist at stock research firm CFRA.

Four Republican presidents suffered through two recessions while in office and Republican President Dwight Eisenhower presided over three. Meanwhile Democrats  have largely skated past the recession quicksand. Four in five Democratic presidents saw no recessions during their terms since 1945.

While history isn’t gospel, the track record makes the odds of a recession during President Trump’s term all the more likely.

Oh well, Republicans will still have their guns.

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8 thoughts on “IS TRUMP RECESSION PROOF

  1. Eight years later and your still blaming Bush. Got to hand it to you Frank, your consistent. However, had you not been getting your news from fake sources like MSNBC or CNN, you would have seen the handwriting on the wall for a long time.

    During Obama’s stint in the White House, poverty rose in 96% of U.S. House districts. The number of multiple jobholders currently sits at the highest number this century. Obama will be the only president in all of U.S. history to never have a single year when the U.S. economy grew by at least 3 percent. The rate of home ownership in the U.S. has fallen every single year Obama has been in the White House. Auto loan delinquencies are at the highest level since the last recession. Nearly 60% of the federal budget is spent on entitlements and interest payments on public debt. Speaking of entitlements, food stamps and other welfare usage has skyrocketed as the wealth and racial inequality gaps have spread to rates not seen in decades and median family income continues to fall.

    Obama came into office with a $15T annual GDP. Growth over the last eight years has pushed GDP up to $16.58T. So, for $10T in added debt, we got $1.58T in economic boost. Obama had a chance, instead he pissed away $10T on banker bailouts, welfare handouts and a scorched earth foreign policy.

    A recession or worse is on the horizon, and surely the main stream media outlets will make every attempt to blame it on Trump. Fake news is what they do best. Truth be told, unless you call a massive spike in debt a win, Obama has not had a single economic success in eight years. He leaves behind a zero legacy.

    • Reliable story from USA Today; you must watch FOX because your numbers are skewed. Article showed presidents from the early 1900’s, each president and how many months in a recession. Clinton and Obama had ZERO months with inflation. We have had growth during Obama, record stock market, lower unemployment, can’t help it if the corporate USA won’t come off a dollar for raises. GOD David your company lost the family business during the Bush administration. I’d think you’d know the difference in the two presidents. Fake news was a Republican specialty this election; read the news don’t watch it. Obama lowered the number of immigrants coming into this county, his increase in welfare was 2% among the lowest to Bush’s 9% and his dad 12%. Trump is already talking about lowering the corporate tax rate by 15% and the higher income tax rate by 10%. Haven’t heard anything about ours. Hold onto your pants David.

  2. Economics is a funny thing. As a soft science, its easy to take bits of information, roll them up into a narrative and present them as a finding of fact. Let’s look at your examples.

    Record stock market – yep, it’s up there. But the market is no longer representative of the economy as a whole. It hasn’t been since 2008. The market is a function of monetary policy dictated by the Federal Reserve. You see, kicking the can down the road is expensive. In order to maintain some semblance of an economy we are forced to borrow money. Trillions. Between 2008 and 2014 most of the debt we sold was purchased by the Fed. This is quantitative easing, better known as money printing. The idea is that the money will trickle down into the economy boosting everyone’s purchasing power. We are a nation of consumers after all, so we need to buy things to keep up the facade. Problem is, the printed money starts its journey with a group of big banks called Primary Dealers. Now thanks to Bill Clinton paying back his banker buddies by repealing the Glass Steagle Act, we no longer separate commercial banking, where you put your money, from investment banking, who, well, invest. So your a primary dealer, someone gives you a few billion dollars, there’s no money to be made lending it as interest rates are near 0%, what are you going to do with it. Why, invest it of course. Invest in assets like the stock market. The money you do actually lend out is going to other large corporations and rich individuals who are also going to invest in assets. This cycle simply pushes asset market values, like the stock market, up. Funny thing is, by the time the money actually reaches the general population, the dollar has already further diluted pushing up prices for everything we buy. Rich get richer, poor get poorer.

    What about unemployment rates. Well, first of all, the definition of unemployed has changed multiple times since Clinton was in office. Always to improve the outlook of course. Today nearly a third of our population is not even counted. There is also this imaginary number called the birth-death ratio that attempts to determine the number of small business start ups in any given month. Its all guesswork, but hey, who’s going to verify. Everyone can see the actual drop in small businesses since Obama started regulating them out of business, but somehow the BLS always says more businesses were started each month than failed. This is added to the labor pool and used to decrease the unemployment rate.

    I could go on, but I think you get the idea. I did make one mistake with my previous numbers. Under Obama we did have a $3.9T increase in GDP. It did, however, cost us almost $10T to get it. So, without the doubling of our debt in 8 years, we would have had a net loss of about $6T. Not exactly a booming economy. We are a nation or renters, never planning on paying our debts. Unfortunately we can only keep going as long as our debt grows significantly faster than the economy. At some point the well runs dry. Cracks are already beginning to show as interest rates start creeping up. It will likely all come crashing down on Trump. We will get a recession at best. Bad timing on his part, but not his fault. It would have happened to Clinton as well.

    No, I don’t watch FOX news or read USA Today (other than Netflix my TV is never even turned on). They are entertainment sources. I’m interested in verifiable facts. If you dig hard enough, they are out there. In a recent post, Nassim Taleb said it well….Trust none of what you hear, some of what you read, half of what you see.

    Finally, not sure what you know about the family business, but neither God nor Bush had much to do with it.

    • Lisa post had nothing to do with election. Article was in USAToday stating since 1928 every Republican president had a recession. Question I asked was can Trump avoid the tradition. You can read can’t you? She did win the popular vote you know?

  3. Here’s a report from Gallup released today. Well worth the read to understand the economy Trump is inheriting. Of course, if your unhappy with the report, please report it to the Washington Post so Gallup can be included in the next list of fake news sites.

    http://www.gallup.com/reports/198776/no-recovery-analysis-long-term-productivity-decline.aspx?utm_source=blog&utm_campaign=TCB12616

    It will take some time, but please download the full report and read it.

  4. American’s are expressing a great deal of confidence in the economy as Trump comes into office. This will probably lead to some forward momentum going in the short term. While I don’t share in their enthusiasm, Gallup, who I can’t believe hasn’t made the Washington Post fake news hit list yet, posted this:

    Americans’ confidence in the economy continues to gradually strengthen after last month’s post-election surge. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged +10 for the week ending Dec. 18, marking another new high in its nine-year trend.

    The latest figure is up slightly from the index’s previous high of +8 recorded in both of the prior two weeks. The first positive double-digit index score since the inception of Gallup Daily tracking in 2008 reflects a stark change in Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy from the negative views they expressed in most weeks over the past nine years.

    Event the Obama cheerleaders at CNBC are seeing the light:

    The CNBC All-America Economic Survey for the fourth quarter found that the percentage of Americans who believe the economy will get better in the next year jumped an unprecedented 17 points to 42 percent, compared with before the election. It’s the highest level since President Barack Obama was first elected in 2008.

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